‘The Situation is Dire’: Hostilities on Iran Tightens India's LPG Supplies.

The ripple effects of a war being fought nearly 3,000km away are now reaching India's households.

As aerial attacks on Iran disrupt energy transports through the Strait of Hormuz, supplies of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are dwindling across India, forcing restaurants to reduce offerings, reduce operating times and in some cases shut down altogether.

Social media is awash with video clips showing crowds outside cooking-gas dealers across Indian cities and towns as anxieties over fuel supplies escalate. Businesses appear the hardest struck: the sharpest squeeze is in food service establishments.

"Conditions are critical. Cooking gas simply cannot be found," says a representative of the a major restaurant body.

Most eateries run either on commercial LPG cylinders or piped gas, and the scarcities are now being experienced across the country. "Many restaurants have closed - some in northern India, many in the south. People are switching to coal and wood and induction stoves to keep food preparation going."

Localized Effects

In Mumbai, accounts say up to a 20% of hotels and restaurants are already operating at reduced capacity as cylinder availability dry up. In the southern cities of tech and coastal hubs, some eateries say their gas stocks have shrunk with minimal reserves. "Our menu is reduced to coffee and no other dishes - it is extremely difficult. Commerce will take a hit," says a business operator in Bengaluru.

Restaurant operators are scrambling to adapt. "Food options are being cut, some are opening only for dinner and reducing hours," an industry representative says, adding that stoppages are changing as supplies come and go. "Three restaurants in Delhi were shut yesterday - a couple are back in business. It's a fluid situation."

Retailers note a surge in sales of induction stoves, with some saying they are facing stockouts.

Government Stance

Yet, the government states there is adequate supply.

India has more than 300 million domestic LPG users and spokespersons say stocks are being reallocated to households as tensions from the regional hostilities impact energy markets.

Approximately 60% of India's LPG is brought in from overseas, and about nine out of ten of those shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the vital passage now significantly disrupted by the conflict.

The petroleum ministry says that it instructed refineries to increase LPG output for home needs, raising domestic production by about a quarter. Commercial stock is being reserved for critical services such as hospitals and educational institutions, while distribution will be "fair and transparent".

"Unnecessary hoarding and accumulation has been caused by misinformation. The regular refill period for domestic LPG remains about 60 hours," says a government spokesperson.

Growing Panic

Now the anxiety is moving beyond kitchens. On social media, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a lengthy, winding line of scooters outside a fuel station. "The panic is real," the description reads.

According to analysis from market experts, concerns about India's broader petroleum stocks may be premature.

India imports almost all of its petroleum. Around a significant portion of its oil purchases - about 2.5-2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from Middle Eastern nations.

Even if petroleum transit through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the shortfall could be partly offset by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a industry commentator.

Based on shipping data and industry information, additional Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, narrowing India's effective gap from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"A large quantity of Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only key buyers as major buyers, those barrels remain a viable alternative," an analyst noted.

Kitchen Fuel: The Primary Concern

The real vulnerability is LPG, commentators observe.

India consumes roughly one million barrels a day, but produces only 40-45% domestically, importing the rest - the vast majority through Hormuz.

Refineries can adjust processes to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only raise domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.

In short: "Crude supply risk can be somewhat alleviated through diversification. Refined product supply remains fairly adequate. Cooking gas supply is the real variable to monitor in the coming weeks."

What may be heightening the panic on the ground is not just scarcity but erratic supply chains - and the common threat of stockpiling.

An industry representative alleges opportunistic profiteering.

"Suppliers are misusing the situation - selling fuel on the black market and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being hoarded and sold to the highest bidder."

For now, India's energy imports may be buffered by international market dynamics. But in kitchens across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next cylinder.