Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
