A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
